Bull Friday? December 16th, 2010.

Today the markets were bull (Agaist my yesterday forecast). 

Results

- Dow Jones                 11,499     +42   +0.36%
- Nasdaq                        2,637     +20   +0.77%
- Standard and Poor's     1,243       +8   +0.62%
- IPC                            37,833   +156   +0.41%


Good economic data today (on average). And the IPC follows SPX.

Indexes

IPC

- Almost all the stocks are in consolidation. Then the IPC behaves in line.

- Important resistance to break 38,000 to return to the Rally.

- Possibilities of a good year end, but with ups and downs. 

- The selectivity of stocks is very important in the next two weeks. 

Standard and Poor's

- Breaks the bearish channel. Now forming a bull channel.  Can be the 5th Elliott wave? Is preparing for a big bull day tomorrow? Tomorrow mandatory break 1,247 to bull. 

- Remember the Hindenburg Omen is a mid-term bear signal. 

Nasdaq 100

- Breaks the bearish channel and is forming a bull channel. This is a bull signal if tomorrow break 2,225.

Dow Jones Industrials

- Without pattern. Important to break the 11,517 level to return to the bull territory. Mandatory for a bull day tomorrow. 

VIX

- The VIX:VXV notes that maybe we are close to a top (high). In addition to the next signals: 

1. Hindenburg Omen. Post of dec. 14th and dec. 15th, 2010. 
2. CPC and CPCE very low many days in a row. Post dec.15th, 2010 and today. 
3. Seven green candles in a row. Post dec. 14th, 2010. 
4. New York Highs of 52 weeks too high. Post dec. 8th, 2010

This is not conclusive but take care. 

CPCE 

Put to Call Ratio on Equity too low. Two observations: 

1. Tomorrow probably a green candle. 
2. The SPX is close to a top (high).

Seasonality

- Dow Jones                  48%

- Standard and Poor's    52%

- Nasdaq                       43%

-- Tomorrow neutral.

- This week is Triple Witching so bull.

- The most important issue, tomorow "Bull Friday": 

Conclusions

- The shor-term and mid-term trends are up.

- Hindenbur Omen Confirmed. 

-- Many bear signals accumulated.  

- Should be very cautious with the trading.

- While the liquidity continues flowing in the market will continue up.

- For tomorrow my feeling is bull: 

1.  Bull Friday. 81% probabilities for bull. 
2. Triple Witching. 66% probabilites for bull (last 27 years). Maybe a huge up. 

¿And the forecast for the next year? 

According to Bespoke (who takes the oppinion of many financial institutions): 

1. This year is over the average. So if the forecast are correct and tomorrow we have an up, then the market should correct before the year end. 
2. For the next year the forecast is a modest +11%. But at least bull. 

I hope Deutsche Bank analysis is correct. 

IPC Sandard and Poors Dow Jones