No bear, no bull. December 28, 2010.

Today the markets were bull. As forecasted yesterday.

Only Nasdaq is left behind.

RESULTS

- Dow Jones                11,576   +21    +0.18%

- Nasdaq                       2,663     -4     -0.17%

- Standard and Poor's    1,259    +1     +0.08%

- IPC                           38,148  +15     +0.04%

INDEXES

IPC

- Little advance. Up, break of the symmetrical triangle? I don't think so. Today most stocks finished in red but the advance of America Movil turns the IPC candle in green.

- Bollinger bands are closing together, this can lead a big move (up or down).

- Oly 30% of the stocks still in overbought. The IPC is neutral so can be up or down in the short time.

- The volume of the IPC is very low, so what happened in these days might be irrelevant.

STANDARD AND POOR'S

- Despite a green candle today, can’t break the 1,260 points resistance. This is not good for the bulls. Not only have the uncertain continued also enable a “triple top” figure, very bearish. So a change in the direction of the trend is possible.

- Observe tomorrow the evolution of this formation. 

NASDAQ 100

- In this moment the most important index is the Nasdaq 100, because is facing a very important and strong resistance in the 2,240 points.

- Is very important for the bulls and the rally, that Nasdaq break above 2,240. If bounce in this level maybe a down trend is starting.

- Today the only index that finishes in red was the Nasdaq, detaching from the main trend.

- Today loss force and is marking lower highs, forming something like a symmetrical triangle, maybe the formation is not correct but reflects that the index is not longer in up trend. 

DOW JONES

- Dow can’t break the 11,581 level with close, this is not a bull signal.

- The index is not showing bull force, and if not break this level soon, it can confirm the start of a down trend. 

VIX

- As commented yesterday, the VIX bounce in the middle of the Bollinger bands. And now directs to the lower band. If this move continues will be good for the bulls and the SPX. See yesterday post. 

- Also start to “fill” the GAP that let yesterday in his up.

- VIX:VXV again very low, indicating one more time that maybe a top is near. 

PUT TO CALL RATIO

- CPC <= 0.80 indicating, one more time, a top is near.

VOLUME

- But, always a “but”, the today’s volume is very low, again. So everything said above can be wrong. All this signals should be confirmed in a day with volume. See yesterday post. 

SEASONALLITY

- Dow Jones                  57%

- Standard and Poor's    57%

- Nasdaq                       57%

- Tomorrow slightly bull.

- We are in year end Rally (Very bull statistically)

- Las week of the month is 60% bear. (SPX)

- Two trading days of the month are statistically bear (87% for the Standard and Poor's)

- The last day of the year es bear for the Nasdaq 9 of the last 10 times.

CONCLUSIONS

- The short-term and mid-term trends are up.

- Many bear signals accumulated, should mean something. The low volume subtracts technical relevance.  

- Neither the bull nor the bears have been imposed.

- Levels to observe:

--- For the bears the supports in:

----- SPX in  1,251

----- Dow in 11,581

----- Nasdaq in 2,240 (The most important level to watch).

--- For the bulls the resistance in 1,260 (SPX)

- The inflow liquidity is also in danger. See “conclusions” in yesterday post.

- For tomorrow my sentiment is slightly bull (Seasonality, year end rally and inflow liquidity).

- Still in “Wait and see” mode. 

IPC Sandard and Poors Dow Jones