viernes, 24 de diciembre de 2010

December 23th, 2010. Merry Christmas!

The market was bear, against the yesterday forecast and a very bull seasonality.

RESULTS

- Dow Jones                11,573 +14   +0.12%
- Nasdaq                       2,666    -6   -0.22%
- Standard and Poor's    1,257    -2   -0.16%
- IPC                           38,131  -41   -0.11%

Today the volumen was low, this fact distorts the market because for the Big Guys is very expensive sell or bought big amounts. Also the bears faces expensive tradings as result of the low volume.

The U.S. Market weak despite the good economic data and the seasonality. ¿Are the bear winning? 


The Indexes


IPC 

- Two red candles in a row, not very bull. But the most important thing: The IPC respect the support in 38,000 points.
- Some equities present divergence with the up trend of the IPC (are lagging behind). This equities can be an interesting buy if the market continues up. The consensus is optimistic for the year end.



Standard and Poor's 

¿Break of the lower band of the ascending channel? If so, then is a very bear signal. Observe on monday for confirmation.



Nasdaq 100

According to yesterday comments, the Nasdaq search the lower bando of the ascending channel, presenting a technical correction.



Dow Jones

Rounded top? If so, is a very bear signal. It is too early but if the index cotinue the correction can form this pattern. Observe.



VIX

- Sets a support in 16.80. Level respected two times in the last four days.
- The bull trading range is below 18.00, the VIX is very low and is very difficult to fall more. This indicate confidence in the market.
- In the bear side, the VIX:VXV very low again, indicating a high is near.



Conclusions

- The short-term and mid-term trends are up.
- The sentiment is very bull, the drive of this ascending market. Result in a very strong buy.
- The seasonality for the year end is very bullish.
- Many bear signals accumulated. Trade carefully.

Tomorrow the US maket is close. The mexican market operates in a short day (close at 12:00). Very low volume expected and maybe a green candle (but a small one). -For the bears is "expensive" to sell in a low volumen market-.

Merry Christmas!!!



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