martes, 7 de diciembre de 2010

Today bears win. Report, December 7, 2010.

The day was dominated by the bears. Observe:



IPC

- The IPC don't stop climbing. Very strong. 
- When try to correct appear buy. 



Bearish signals for tomorrow in the US market. 

Remember the IPC is bullish than the SPX. But follows it's movements. 

VIX

- Is hard to continue falling. Searching the lower band of Bollinger. 
- Two reversal candles in a row. 
- If the VIX start climbing is bad signal for the bulls. 



CPC

- Too low. If CPC <= 0.08 the next day 14 out of 20 times closes in red. 
- Many days low in a row. 



- CPCE very low (<= 0.50) and confirms the red candle tomorrow. 



Standard and Poor's

- Today a false brake. Still out of bulls territory (beyond 1,228 in SPX). 
- Very bear signal. 



Dow Jones

- Rebound in previous high. Not a bull signal. 



Seasonality

- Dow Jones                   52%
- Standard and Poor's     52%
- Nasdaq                        48%
-- Neutral day

- This week is bearish. 


High's of 52 weeks. ¿Are near a high? 

- This analysis is not conclusive, but not ignore it. There are likely to be at a maximum and approaches a correction. Consider:
a) The market can not brake the resistance.
b) The VIX has plenty of space up and down is going to be hard, is already at very low levels.
c) Overbought in the indexes.
d) The "madness" in the options (See CPC)
e) This week seasonality is friendly with the Bears.
Could it be?



Conclusions 

- We are out of bulls territory (beyond 1,228 of the SPX)
- The short-term trend and de mid-term trend are up.
- The bull territory is beyond 1,228 (SPX) and bear territory is beyond 1,173 (SPX). A breakdown is needed.
-- If SPX breaks the 1,228 then the technical target is 1,335.

- Slightly bearish for tomorrow

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