Today a boring session. December 9, 2010.

Today the markets were bull. But a weak and lazy bull.

IPC

- Profit take continues today.

- Bank of México reports inflation better than expected. (4.32% year forcast).

- The issuing companies are close to technicals resistances, and the market is extremly oversold. That causes the profit take.

Mixed signals in the US market.

- Tomorrow observe, they shoul align and trend in the same direction. 

Standard and Poor's (SPX)

- Today an ascending triangle forming. Tomorrow will resolve (bear or bull). 

- Today confirm the break of the 1,228 level. But unconvincig. 

Dow Jones (DJI)

- Maybe a Flag is forming. Bullish formation (54% of the time). 

- Resistance in 11,450, still far away. 

Nasdaq 100

- The break is not clear. Unconvincing. 

VIX

- In the hard way, down. 

- Is easier for the VIX to go up than down. And also has more space. 

- Look for the VIX:VXV marking a possible high. 

CPC

- When CPC <= 0.80 the next day more probable a red candle. 

- Yes, I know, recently has failed a lot. But observe what happen when many "green lines" consecutives. (For me a bear signal). 

- The efect of the "green lines" is more evident in the CPCE

Fiancial sector. 

Bank Index. 

- Accomplish techincal target.

- Very bull today, helped by AIG. 

- The SPX cant go too far without the bank's. Today SPX has foundation to contruct his Rally.

- Remember the financial sector is underperforming the overall market. 

But be carefully look to this chart of Bespoke: 

AIG 

- ¡What a candle today! (+12.7%)

- Will pullback tomorrow? AIG is a surprise box, previous days looks weak but with the announced of the preapay to the goberment shot up. [That doesn't happen with Citigroup]

Seasonality

- Dow Jones                57%

- Standard and Poor's  48%

- Nasdaq                     43%

-- Tomorrow neutral day (slightly bearish)

* This week is statistically bear. 

Conclusions

- The short-term and mid-term trends are up.

- The SPX validate the break of the 1,228 level, but unconvincing, so be careful. Wait until confirmation:

-- Dow close over 11,450 and the resolve of the "flag".

-- Nasdaq 100 close over 2,200 but in a convincing way. 

-- SPX resolve of the ascending triangle. 

--- Observe increase in volume

- We aren't in a Rally until confirmation. I'm optimistic about late december.

- Mi short-term sentiment is bear [So many bear signals should mean something]. For tomorrow I am neutral. 

-- Conjecture: If tomorrow opens with an up GAP, could break the triangle up and this should take the SPX to 1.246.

IPC Sandard and Poors Dow Jones